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Debate about the possible cause of the extinction has continued for over 150 yr (3–5), stimulated by new fossil finds, dating techniques, and modes of analysis.The debate is not strictly scientific, however, because it impacts on the broader understanding of the evolutionary theater of early human cultures, the fate of contemporary global biodiversity, and the rights of indigenous hunters (4, 6, 7).Second, a metaanalysis of megafaunal remains (18) found a coincidence between megafaunal extinction and human colonization of Greater Australia (19, 20) ≈40,000–50,000 calendar years before present (yr B. Given the significance and impact of these articles, we chose to examine their assumptions by undertaking some additional simulations and statistical analyses and reflect on possible future avenues that may advance this complicated problem.Recent computer modeling has been used to “prove” that megafaunal extinction was due solely to over-hunting by humans (16, 17).By contrast, the extra-African megafauna are characterized as completely naive to the human predator and therefore vulnerable to overkill and the disintegration of food webs (8, 15).A recent series of articles, widely reported in the international media, have been heralded as a major breakthrough in this debate.Although a residual extant megafauna did survive the Pleistocene extinction event (e.g., red kangaroo, bison, Asian elephant, llama, etc.), the only continent on Earth where a diverse assemblage of megafauna remains is Africa, which is also where modern humans arose.The African “anomaly” is typically explained by long-term coevolution of megafauna with humans such that the prey and predator are matched evenly, thereby creating trophic equilibrium.

Recent field research has shown that both contemporary marsupial and eutherian prey populations can develop vigilance toward novel predators quite rapidly (21, 22), which raises the question: What would happen to the predictions of these models if this assumption was relaxed?

, which is published as supporting information on the PNAS web site, org, and Fig. To date, all overkill models assume prey off-take is described by a “type II functional response,” where = 1 (Alroy's assumption), our prediction of the probability of overkill (93%) actually exceeded Alroy's results (81%, based on the 37 scenarios in which he treated megafauna as an undifferentiated ecological unit, as we have done).

Our higher predicted probability of overkill when = 1 reflects our conservative assumption that human population dynamics were independent of prey density, in contrast to Alroy's coupling of these terms.

A great variety of competing scenarios have been proposed to explain the extinction of the megafauna such as climate change, disease, altered habitat condition (particularly due to the effects of landscape burning by humans), and the breakdown of food webs (3, 10, 11), but the presently ascendant idea is the so-called overkill hypothesis.

This theory posits that extinctions were exclusively a result of human hunting (12), with a popular variant being the most restrictive case (termed “blitzkrieg”), where the extinction phase occurred within a few thousand years of human colonization (9, 13).




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