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According to Fishbein and Treverton, “alternative analysis seeks to help analysts and policy-makers stretch their thinking through structured techniques that challenge underlying assumptions and broaden the range of possible outcomes considered.” They further clarify the term by specifying that “Alternative analysis includes techniques to challenge analytic assumptions (e.g.

‘devil’s advocacy’), and those to expand the range of possible outcomes considered (e.g.

An overconfident or culturally biased analyst or team will not benefit as much from these approaches as might an analyst or team that employs “actively open-minded thinking.”One can argue that the best red teamers are born, not trained.

They also ensure that the team has the right mixture of expertise so that its results will be considered credible to the institution they are looking to influence (in this case, climate science).

Lastly, they give the red team sufficient independence to come to original and creative conclusions. There are many pitfalls in establishing and conducting a successful and useful red team exercise.

It seems that some people have an instinctive ability to red team, while others—despite extensive training—can never escape the secure but confining pen of convention.

In fact, this is perhaps the key characteristic of the inferior red team: an inability or unwillingness to color outside the lines. Not every decision maker wants a red team (or at least a candid red team).




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For articles with no identified author, in text use a short title in double quotation marks (or the full title if it is short) for the parenthetical citation: ("New Drug", 1993, July 15). hid=22&sid=6544e16c-21a3-4092-87 [email protected]&vid=1&bdata= Jn Npd GU9ZWhvc3Qtb Gl2ZQ==#db=a9h&jid= HHR In-text: ("In brief", 2010).


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